President Trump declared the US-Iran ceasefire "over" after Iranian forces struck three commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and the US military hit more than 80 Iranian targets in retaliation.^1,2 The Treasury Department's OFAC revoked the license permitting Iranian oil sales that had underpinned the June MOU, eliminating Tehran's principal economic incentive under the interim deal.⁸ Brent crude jumped roughly 6% and the 10-year Treasury yield spiked to 4.57% as markets repriced both a supply shock and a Fed with no room to ease.^1,4 New Fed Chair Warsh's first meeting minutes, due today, arrive into a market already pricing a quarter-point hike by December with rising odds of a half-point move.⁹

Samsung reported record profit and doubled revenue, yet chip stocks sold off broadly — Micron fell 4.7%, SanDisk 7.3%, the semiconductor ETF over 5% — on fears the AI hardware supercycle has peaked.^2,5 ESCALATED: ESCALATED The digest's frame of SK Hynix's $28 billion US listing as "multiple times oversubscribed" sits uneasily against the stock's own home-market action: SK Hynix shares fell alongside a roughly 5% Kospi rout, and a Stocktwits poll found 40% of retail traders plan to skip the listing.^5,6 That is a genuine tension the sunny IPO-demand narrative does not resolve — Korean holders are selling the exact stock American funds are being told to chase. Iran, meanwhile, continues to deny IAEA inspectors access to its damaged nuclear sites; no formal Grossi statement has surfaced confirming or denying access, and social-media claims of restored inspection access remain single-source and uncorroborated.³

Over the next 30-90 days this converges on one outcome: energy producers gain a durable floor under prices while consumers absorb the bill through gasoline, financed AI hardware costs, and a Fed that has explicitly abandoned near-term easing. The June MOU's actual function — a licensed oil window and a controlled Hormuz transit corridor — expired on contact with Iranian pressure, and its collapse hands Treasury the same discretionary sanctions lever it used to grant the waiver in the first place.⁸ Whoever controls the waiver controls the oil price, and today that is unambiguously the executive branch, not the market.