Two forces set the price of everything today. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole debut left market pricing for a September hike at a 60% implied chance, while a separate reading put the odds at 62% for the September 16 meeting — the spread is narrow, the direction is not in dispute.^3,4 Overnight, U.S. Central Command struck two Iranian rocket launchers preparing to fire sea-mine-laden rockets into the Strait of Hormuz, Iran answered against U.S. bases in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates, and crude rose more than 2% through $90 a barrel.^6,7,5 Long rates split under the strain: the 10-year German Bund printed a 15-year high while U.S. Treasury yields fell.⁸ None of it stopped August closing green, with the Dow up 2.1% for a fifth consecutive monthly advance.⁹

The official position is that the waterway is secure. The President stated the Navy has removed or detonated every Iranian mine in the international waters of the Strait, and CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper stated the internationally recognized transit routes are free of Iranian sea mines after U.S. forces assisted nearly 1,500 commercial vessels carrying nearly 750 million barrels of crude.^10,11 Iranian state media reported the same day that a supertanker caught fire after striking two naval mines in that Strait — an unverified single-source state claim [T3] with no independent confirmation, and the two accounts cannot both be complete.¹² The verification problem reaches the official channel itself: the President posted an AI-generated video showing Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal destroyed, with no evidence of any such strike.¹³ The same fog covers the announced relief valve: the Venezuela pact is reported as a 25-year agreement covering 65 billion barrels and, elsewhere, as majority control of over 65 million barrels — a thousandfold spread with no published lease terms behind either figure.^14,15

The transmission is already at the checkout. Corn and wheat have surged to their highest level in three years, instant coffee is up 15.8% year-over-year, and J.P. Morgan analysts warn global food inflation would reach 5% in the first half of 2027.¹⁶ Treasury is answering with finance rather than force — another bank designated and secondary sanctions promised weekly — while convening G20 finance chiefs in Asheville to confront China's $1.2 trillion trade surplus, and Canadian small exporters absorb 50% U.S. duties with Ottawa's retaliation dated September 8.^17,18,19 Over the next 30 to 90 days the gains concentrate in U.S. energy producers, defense primes and the banks safely inside the dollar-clearing perimeter. The cost lands on American households paying for a six-month war twice — once at the pump and again at the register.